International relations

Hybrid warefare - the changing battlefield

In a geopilitical situation of escalating tension and conflict, a new term, hybrid warefare, has emerged among military commentators as a description of how conflicting countries operate.

Hybrid warfare is a strategy that combines conventional military tactics with irregular tactics, cyber warfare, and other non-military tools to achieve strategic objectives. It blurs the lines between traditional warfare and other forms of conflict, incorporating a mix of state and non-state actors, disinformation campaigns, economic coercion, and other non-military methods to undermine an opponent.

Here are some key elements of hybrid warfare:

  1. Conventional Forces: Use of regular military units, such as ground troops, air forces, and naval forces, to conduct traditional combat operations.

  2. Irregular Tactics: These include guerrilla warfare, terrorism, and other forms of asymmetrical combat, often carried out by non-state actors or covert units.

  3. Cyber Warfare: Attacks on information systems, networks, and infrastructure to disrupt, steal, or manipulate data, which can cripple an opponent’s communications and operations.

  4. Disinformation and Propaganda: Spreading false or misleading information to confuse, divide, or demoralize an opponent. This can involve social media campaigns, fake news, and other forms of psychological manipulation.

  5. Economic Coercion: Use of economic tools such as sanctions, trade restrictions, or financial manipulation to weaken an opponent’s economy or influence their decision-making.

  6. Political Influence Operations: Efforts to undermine or manipulate political processes in a target country, such as influencing elections or supporting sympathetic political movements.

  7. Diplomatic Pressure: Leveraging international diplomatic channels to isolate or weaken an opponent’s position.

Hybrid warfare is often used to achieve objectives without triggering a full-scale war, allowing the aggressor to operate in a gray zone between peace and open conflict. This approach can make it difficult for the targeted nation or organization to respond effectively, as the aggressor's actions may fall short of what would traditionally justify a military response.

A prominent example of hybrid warfare is Russia's actions in Ukraine, particularly in Crimea and Eastern Ukraine, where a combination of conventional military forces, unmarked troops (often referred to as "little green men"), cyber attacks, and disinformation campaigns were used.

Who is the next global superpower?

Studying Comparative Politics in University, we often touched upon international relations and how differences in power affected how states behaved and interacted. All of us growing up in the cold war era experienced a world dominated by two super-powers. After the decline of the Soviet Union and the fall of the Berlin wall, new players entered the world stage. However, three main factors has put globalization and international co-operation at risk:

  1. Russia´s decline and withdrawal from international co-operation

  2. China´s reluctancy to compete on “Western” terms and conditions

  3. Tens of millions of people in industrialized countries feeling marginalized by globalisation

Today we have a world security order, driven by the NATO alliance, an alliance becoming even more relevant after Russia´s invasion of Ukraine.

In addition we have a world economic order, dominated by US, but of course also China, India, Japan and the EU. Opposite the world security order, the economic order is and will remain a multipolar order as no state can dictate the trade rules and that the states are interdependent.

According to Bremmer, the next world order is a digital world order, and is not dominated by states, but by tech companies. Examples are their role in the war in Ukraine in terms of communication, the American presidential election in terms of voter behavior and en general in terms of how the algorithms influence us in our everyday life. He argues that they will determinate if we will have techno-polar world order or a world of freedom and technological cooperation. Concerns are the tech companies´s enormous power, and specifically AI, personal data, targeted advertising and the opportunities to affect democracies and our everyday lives.